California Fast Food Minimum Wage Mandate — What the Data Tells Us.

Back on April 1st, 2024, the State of California instituted a new law (AB 1228) raising the minimum wage for fast food workers to $20 per hour — marking a 25% increase from the state’s blanket minimum wage of $16, which went into effect January 1st of that year. What constitutes a “fast food” establishment is generally covered under the NAICS code 733513: limited-service restaurants. These are restaurants that offer no table service, where customers order food and beverages that are paid for prior to consumption, whether it be dine-in, take-out, or delivery. For an establishment to be subject to this law, it must be part of a restaurant chain with at least 60 locations nationwide.

A study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that employment in the fast food sector declined by 18,000 between September 2023 (when the law was first enacted) and September 2024. Relative to the United States overall, this represents a 2.7 percent decline. When I first read this, I was immediately curious what these figures look like for Fresno County